Adds the second AI detective in the Investigation Bureau runtime: Sherlock
Holmes, who builds 2-3 rival hypotheses with calibrated priors + posteriors
against a corpus shortlist.
Pipeline:
1. hybridSearch() grounds Holmes with 8-15 chunks via the same
hybrid_search_chunks RPC the web uses (BM25 + dense + RRF). Default
max_dense_dist=0.55 (runtime favors recall over precision; web's
/api/search/hybrid stays at 0.40 for chat).
2. claude-sonnet-4-6 emits a strict JSON array with position +
argument_for + argument_against + prior + posterior + confidence_band
+ evidence_refs. Citations use [[doc-id/pNNN#cNNNN]] wiki-links.
3. writeHypothesis() validates posterior ∈ [0,1], auto-corrects the
Tetlock band from the posterior (high ≥0.90, medium 0.60-0.89,
low 0.30-0.59, speculation <0.30), checks evidence_refs FK against
public.evidence, INSERTs into public.hypotheses + writes
case/hypotheses/H-NNNN.md.
Discipline guarantees (prompts/holmes.md):
- posteriors across rivals sum to ≈1.0
- no claim without chunk citation
- prefer lower band when ambiguous (anti-inflation)
- declarative one-sentence position, no hedging
- emit `NO_HYPOTHESES` when corpus is silent (refuses to fabricate)
Smoke test (Sandia green fireballs 1948-49):
- H-0001 prior 0.5 → posterior 0.2 (speculation): natural meteoric
- H-0002 prior 0.3 → posterior 0.4 (low): classified weapons / tests
- H-0003 prior 0.2 → posterior 0.4 (low): genuinely unidentified
Bayesian update visible: "natural meteoric" prior dropped 60%; both
rivals climbed. 4 unique chunk citations across the 3 hypotheses.
orchestrator dispatches `hypothesis_tournament` kind via runHolmes;
job marked `failed` if all rivals error, `complete` otherwise.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
