W3.9: surface the Investigation Bureau on the homepage + /bureau hub

Closes a UX gap the user surfaced: W3.5-3.8 built 8 detectives, 4 new
URL endpoints (/jobs/[id], /h/[id], /c/[slug], /api/h/[id]/red-team)
and a chat tool, but the homepage was unchanged — the bureau was
invisible unless you knew the URL or asked the chat to invoke
request_investigation.

Homepage (web/app/page.tsx):
  - Title `▍ war.gov/ufo — Investigative Wiki` → `▍ The Disclosure Bureau`
  - Subtitle expanded from "Holmes · Poirot · Dupin · Locard" to all 8
    detectives (Holmes · Locard · Dupin · Schneier · Poirot · Taleb ·
    Tetlock · Case-Writer)
  - New `🔎 bureau` topbar link (gold, between graph/stats and batch)
  - BureauSnapshot inserted right after the header

BureauSnapshot (web/components/bureau-snapshot.tsx) — server component:
  - 8 detective tiles with role labels (each in its tone color)
  - 6 clickable counters (evidence / hypotheses / contradictions /
    witnesses / outliers / case reports) — anchor to /bureau#section
  - 6 "recent artefacts" columns surfacing the last 3-4 of each kind:
    hypotheses with prior→posterior + band + ↳reviewed_by marker,
    contradictions with topic + resolution_status, evidence with
    Grade badge + verbatim quote, outliers with title + scope.kind,
    witness analyses with canonical_name + credibility + verdict,
    case reports with slug + link to /c/<slug>
  - "Recent jobs" strip linking to /jobs/[id] color-coded by status
  - Reports read from /data/ufo/case/reports/ via fs.readdir + stat,
    sorted by mtime — no DB round-trip needed for that section

/bureau (web/app/bureau/page.tsx) — full hub:
  - Header with full counts
  - 7 sections (anchored to homepage counter links): Case reports,
    Hypotheses, Evidence, Contradictions, Outliers, Witnesses,
    Recent jobs table — each rendering up to 100 rows
  - Reports section parses frontmatter from each .md to surface topic
    + n_hypotheses + n_evidence on the card

Runtime fixes batched in:
  - Poirot: coerce entity_pk via Number() — node-postgres returns
    BIGINT as string by default; writer's Number.isFinite() rejected
    it as "person_entity_pk required" (j-edgar-hoover retry path)
  - Tetlock: write_calibration rationale cap 600 → 1200 chars. Prompt
    still asks ≤ 600 but a 2× slack beats failing the job on honest
    analysis. Observed live: Tetlock emitted ~620 chars on H-0003 and
    the writer rejected the entire calibration.
  - Case-Writer: Promise.all of 5 queries × max_parallel=2 jobs
    demanded up to 10 connections against the investigator role's
    rolconnlimit=4 → "too many connections for role investigator".
    Sequentialized — the LLM call is the hot path, not these queries.

Smoke results visible now on the homepage:
  - 3 hypotheses (H-0001/2/3) about green fireballs origin
  - 3 contradictions (R-0001/2/3) about color, geographic confinement,
    exclusive-green vs multicolored
  - 2 evidence cards (E-0002/3) Grade B
  - 3 outliers (G-0001/2/3) — including Taleb's deliberate
    meteor-shower-camouflage flag
  - 1 case report at /c/green-fireballs-sandia (Watson 13.4 KB,
    five-act narrative, fully cited)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

investigator-runtime/src/detectives/case_writer.ts

@@ -223,58 +223,59 @@ export async function runCaseWriter(task: CaseWriterTask): Promise<
   const filter = `%${topic.toLowerCase()}%`;
   const docIdFilter = task.doc_id ?? null;
 
-  // Pull artefacts. For evidence/contradictions we use the doc_id when set;
+  // Pull artefacts SEQUENTIALLY. The investigator role has rolconnlimit=4 and
-  // otherwise widen by topic substring on the artefact's text fields.
+  // pool.max=4; Promise.all of 5 queries × max_parallel=2 jobs would demand
-  const [evidence, hypotheses, contradictions, witnesses, gaps] = await Promise.all([
+  // 10 simultaneous connections and the role rejects "too many connections".
-    query<EvidenceRow>(
+  // Sequential gather still finishes well under a second — case-writer's hot
-      docIdFilter
+  // path is the LLM call, not these queries.
-        ? `SELECT e.evidence_id, e.grade, e.source_page_id, e.verbatim_excerpt,
+  const evidence = await query<EvidenceRow>(
-                  e.confidence_band, e.related_hypotheses
+    docIdFilter
-             FROM public.evidence e
+      ? `SELECT e.evidence_id, e.grade, e.source_page_id, e.verbatim_excerpt,
-            WHERE e.source_page_id LIKE $1 || '/%'
+                e.confidence_band, e.related_hypotheses
-            ORDER BY e.evidence_id LIMIT 20`
+           FROM public.evidence e
-        : `SELECT e.evidence_id, e.grade, e.source_page_id, e.verbatim_excerpt,
+          WHERE e.source_page_id LIKE $1 || '/%'
-                  e.confidence_band, e.related_hypotheses
+          ORDER BY e.evidence_id LIMIT 20`
-             FROM public.evidence e
+      : `SELECT e.evidence_id, e.grade, e.source_page_id, e.verbatim_excerpt,
-            WHERE LOWER(e.verbatim_excerpt) LIKE $1
+                e.confidence_band, e.related_hypotheses
-            ORDER BY e.evidence_id LIMIT 20`,
+           FROM public.evidence e
-      [docIdFilter ?? filter],
+          WHERE LOWER(e.verbatim_excerpt) LIKE $1
-    ),
+          ORDER BY e.evidence_id LIMIT 20`,
-    query<HypothesisRow>(
+    [docIdFilter ?? filter],
-      `SELECT hypothesis_id, question, position, argument_for, argument_against,
+  );
-              prior, posterior, confidence_band, status, reviewed_by
+  const hypotheses = await query<HypothesisRow>(
-         FROM public.hypotheses
+    `SELECT hypothesis_id, question, position, argument_for, argument_against,
-        WHERE LOWER(question) LIKE $1 OR LOWER(position) LIKE $1
+            prior, posterior, confidence_band, status, reviewed_by
-        ORDER BY hypothesis_id LIMIT 12`,
+       FROM public.hypotheses
-      [filter],
+      WHERE LOWER(question) LIKE $1 OR LOWER(position) LIKE $1
-    ),
+      ORDER BY hypothesis_id LIMIT 12`,
-    query<ContradictionRow>(
+    [filter],
-      `SELECT contradiction_id, topic, chunks, resolution_status, notes
+  );
-         FROM public.contradictions
+  const contradictions = await query<ContradictionRow>(
-        WHERE LOWER(topic) LIKE $1
+    `SELECT contradiction_id, topic, chunks, resolution_status, notes
-        ORDER BY contradiction_id LIMIT 8`,
+       FROM public.contradictions
-      [filter],
+      WHERE LOWER(topic) LIKE $1
-    ),
+      ORDER BY contradiction_id LIMIT 8`,
-    query<WitnessRow>(
+    [filter],
-      `SELECT w.witness_id, e.canonical_name, w.credibility, w.verdict,
+  );
-              w.access_to_event, w.bias_notes
+  const witnesses = await query<WitnessRow>(
-         FROM public.witnesses w
+    `SELECT w.witness_id, e.canonical_name, w.credibility, w.verdict,
-    LEFT JOIN public.entities e ON e.entity_pk = w.person_entity_pk
+            w.access_to_event, w.bias_notes
-        WHERE LOWER(COALESCE(w.verdict,'')) LIKE $1
+       FROM public.witnesses w
-           OR LOWER(COALESCE(e.canonical_name,'')) LIKE $1
+  LEFT JOIN public.entities e ON e.entity_pk = w.person_entity_pk
-        ORDER BY w.witness_id LIMIT 8`,
+      WHERE LOWER(COALESCE(w.verdict,'')) LIKE $1
-      [filter],
+         OR LOWER(COALESCE(e.canonical_name,'')) LIKE $1
-    ),
+      ORDER BY w.witness_id LIMIT 8`,
-    query<GapRow>(
+    [filter],
-      `SELECT gap_id, description, scope, suggested_next_move, status
+  );
-         FROM public.gaps
+  const gaps = await query<GapRow>(
-        WHERE LOWER(description) LIKE $1
+    `SELECT gap_id, description, scope, suggested_next_move, status
-           OR LOWER(COALESCE(scope->>'title','')) LIKE $1
+       FROM public.gaps
-           OR LOWER(COALESCE(scope->>'why_surprising','')) LIKE $1
+      WHERE LOWER(description) LIKE $1
-        ORDER BY gap_id LIMIT 8`,
+         OR LOWER(COALESCE(scope->>'title','')) LIKE $1
-      [filter],
+         OR LOWER(COALESCE(scope->>'why_surprising','')) LIKE $1
-    ),
+      ORDER BY gap_id LIMIT 8`,
-  ]);
+    [filter],
+  );
 
   await audit({
     event: "case_writer_grounded",

investigator-runtime/src/detectives/poirot.ts

@@ -149,7 +149,9 @@ export async function runPoirot(task: PoirotTask): Promise<
     );
     if (!row) return { skipped: true, reason: "person_not_found" };
     if (row.entity_class !== "person") return { skipped: true, reason: "entity_is_not_person" };
-    entity_pk = row.entity_pk;
+    // node-postgres returns BIGINT as a string by default; coerce so writer's
+    // Number.isFinite() check passes.
+    entity_pk = Number(row.entity_pk);
     canonical_name = row.canonical_name;
     aliases = row.aliases ?? [];
   } else if (entity_pk !== null) {

investigator-runtime/src/tools/write_calibration.ts

@@ -86,7 +86,10 @@ export async function writeCalibration(
   // Force the band to match the posterior — Tetlock can mis-label.
   body.new_confidence_band = expectedBand;
   if (!body.rationale?.trim()) throw new Error("rationale required");
-  if (body.rationale.length > 600) throw new Error(`rationale too long`);
+  // Soft cap: 1200 chars. Tetlock often writes 600-800 of substantive
+  // reasoning + chunk citations; the prompt asks for ≤ 600 but a 2× slack
+  // beats failing the job on an honest analysis.
+  if (body.rationale.length > 1200) throw new Error(`rationale too long (${body.rationale.length} > 1200)`);
 
   const action = body.recommended_action;
   if (!["keep", "downgrade", "upgrade", "supersede"].includes(action)) {

web/app/bureau/page.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,320 @@
+/**
+ * /bureau — Investigation Bureau hub.
+ *
+ * Full listing of every artefact: evidence, hypotheses, contradictions,
+ * witnesses, outliers, case reports, recent jobs. Each anchor-section
+ * matches the hash-links from the homepage's counter row.
+ */
+import Link from "next/link";
+import { pgQuery } from "@/lib/retrieval/db";
+import { AuthBar } from "@/components/auth-bar";
+
+export const runtime = "nodejs";
+export const dynamic = "force-dynamic";
+
+interface EvidenceRow {
+  evidence_id: string;
+  grade: string;
+  verbatim_excerpt: string;
+  source_page_id: string;
+  confidence_band: string | null;
+}
+interface HypothesisRow {
+  hypothesis_id: string;
+  question: string;
+  position: string;
+  prior: number | string | null;
+  posterior: number | string | null;
+  confidence_band: string | null;
+  status: string;
+  reviewed_by: string | null;
+  created_at: string;
+}
+interface ContradictionRow {
+  contradiction_id: string;
+  topic: string;
+  resolution_status: string;
+  chunks: unknown;
+}
+interface GapRow {
+  gap_id: string;
+  description: string;
+  scope: unknown;
+  status: string;
+  suggested_next_move: string | null;
+}
+interface WitnessRow {
+  witness_id: string;
+  canonical_name: string | null;
+  entity_id: string | null;
+  credibility: string | null;
+  verdict: string | null;
+}
+interface JobRow {
+  job_id: string;
+  kind: string;
+  status: string;
+  payload: Record<string, unknown> | null;
+  created_at: string;
+  finished_at: string | null;
+  triggered_by: string | null;
+}
+
+const BAND_TONE: Record<string, string> = {
+  high: "text-[#06d6a0] border-[#06d6a0]",
+  medium: "text-[#3fde6a] border-[#3fde6a]",
+  low: "text-[#ffa500] border-[#ffa500]",
+  speculation: "text-[#ff6ec7] border-[#ff6ec7]",
+};
+
+const GRADE_TONE: Record<string, string> = {
+  A: "text-[#06d6a0] border-[#06d6a0]",
+  B: "text-[#3fde6a] border-[#3fde6a]",
+  C: "text-[#ffa500] border-[#ffa500]",
+};
+
+export default async function BureauPage() {
+  // All artefacts. Server component — single round per query, no n+1.
+  const [hyp, ev, ctr, gap, wit, jobs] = await Promise.all([
+    pgQuery<HypothesisRow>(
+      `SELECT hypothesis_id, question, position, prior, posterior, confidence_band,
+              status, reviewed_by, created_at
+         FROM public.hypotheses ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 100`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<EvidenceRow>(
+      `SELECT evidence_id, grade, verbatim_excerpt, source_page_id, confidence_band
+         FROM public.evidence ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 100`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<ContradictionRow>(
+      `SELECT contradiction_id, topic, resolution_status, chunks
+         FROM public.contradictions ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 100`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<GapRow>(
+      `SELECT gap_id, description, scope, status, suggested_next_move
+         FROM public.gaps ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 100`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<WitnessRow>(
+      `SELECT w.witness_id, e.canonical_name, e.entity_id, w.credibility, w.verdict
+         FROM public.witnesses w
+    LEFT JOIN public.entities e ON e.entity_pk = w.person_entity_pk
+        ORDER BY w.created_at DESC LIMIT 100`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<JobRow>(
+      `SELECT job_id, kind, status, payload, created_at, finished_at, triggered_by
+         FROM public.investigation_jobs ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 25`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+  ]);
+
+  const { readdir, stat, readFile } = await import("node:fs/promises");
+  const path = await import("node:path");
+  const reportsDir = path.join(process.env.CASE_ROOT || "/data/ufo/case", "reports");
+  let reports: Array<{ slug: string; topic: string; mtimeMs: number; n_evidence: number; n_hypotheses: number }> = [];
+  try {
+    const files = await readdir(reportsDir);
+    const items = await Promise.all(
+      files.filter((f) => f.endsWith(".md")).map(async (f) => {
+        const full = path.join(reportsDir, f);
+        const st = await stat(full);
+        const head = (await readFile(full, "utf-8")).slice(0, 2000);
+        const topicMatch = head.match(/topic:\s*"([^"]+)"/);
+        const eMatch = head.match(/n_evidence:\s*(\d+)/);
+        const hMatch = head.match(/n_hypotheses:\s*(\d+)/);
+        return {
+          slug: f.replace(/\.md$/, ""),
+          topic: topicMatch?.[1] ?? f,
+          mtimeMs: st.mtimeMs,
+          n_evidence: Number(eMatch?.[1] ?? 0),
+          n_hypotheses: Number(hMatch?.[1] ?? 0),
+        };
+      }),
+    );
+    reports = items.sort((a, b) => b.mtimeMs - a.mtimeMs);
+  } catch { /* fine */ }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="min-h-screen bg-[#0a0e1a] text-[#e7ecf3]">
+      <AuthBar />
+      <div className="mx-auto max-w-6xl px-4 py-8 pt-16">
+        <div className="text-[11px] text-[#5a6678] font-mono mb-2">
+          <Link href="/" className="hover:text-[#7fdbff]">disclosure.top</Link>
+          <span className="mx-1">/</span>
+          <span className="text-[#e0c080]">bureau</span>
+        </div>
+
+        <header className="mb-8 border-b border-[rgba(224,192,128,0.32)] pb-4">
+          <h1 className="font-mono text-3xl text-[#e0c080]">▍ The Investigation Bureau</h1>
+          <p className="text-[#8896aa] text-sm mt-1">
+            Live case folder · {ev.length} evidence · {hyp.length} hypotheses · {ctr.length} contradictions ·{" "}
+            {wit.length} witnesses · {gap.length} outliers · {reports.length} reports
+          </p>
+        </header>
+
+        {/* Case reports */}
+        <Section id="reports" title="Case reports" color="text-[#e0c080]">
+          {reports.length === 0 ? <Empty /> : reports.map((r) => (
+            <Link key={r.slug} href={`/c/${r.slug}`} className="block rounded border border-[rgba(224,192,128,0.18)] bg-[#0d1220] p-3 hover:bg-[rgba(224,192,128,0.04)] mb-2">
+              <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">/c/{r.slug}</div>
+              <div className="text-[14px] text-[#e7ecf3] font-medium mt-1">{r.topic}</div>
+              <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678] mt-1">
+                {r.n_hypotheses} hypotheses · {r.n_evidence} evidence
+              </div>
+            </Link>
+          ))}
+        </Section>
+
+        {/* Hypotheses */}
+        <Section id="hypotheses" title="Hypotheses" color="text-[#7fdbff]">
+          {hyp.length === 0 ? <Empty /> : hyp.map((h) => {
+            const post = h.posterior !== null ? Number(h.posterior) : null;
+            const prior = h.prior !== null ? Number(h.prior) : null;
+            const delta = post !== null && prior !== null ? post - prior : null;
+            const bandTone = (h.confidence_band && BAND_TONE[h.confidence_band]) || "text-[#9aa6b8] border-[#9aa6b8]";
+            return (
+              <Link key={h.hypothesis_id} href={`/h/${h.hypothesis_id}`}
+                className="block rounded border border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.18)] bg-[#0d1220] p-3 hover:bg-[rgba(127,219,255,0.04)] mb-2">
+                <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2 mb-1 flex-wrap">
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{h.hypothesis_id} · {h.status}</span>
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-1">
+                    {h.confidence_band && (
+                      <span className={`px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded text-[10px] font-mono uppercase border ${bandTone}`}>{h.confidence_band}</span>
+                    )}
+                    {h.reviewed_by && (
+                      <span className="text-[9px] font-mono text-[#ff3344]">↳ {h.reviewed_by}</span>
+                    )}
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+                <div className="text-[13px] text-[#e7ecf3] leading-snug">{h.position}</div>
+                <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678] mt-1">
+                  prior {prior?.toFixed(2) ?? "—"} → posterior {post?.toFixed(2) ?? "—"}
+                  {delta !== null && <span className={delta > 0 ? " text-[#06d6a0]" : delta < 0 ? " text-[#ff6ec7]" : ""}> · Δ {delta >= 0 ? "+" : ""}{delta.toFixed(3)}</span>}
+                </div>
+              </Link>
+            );
+          })}
+        </Section>
+
+        {/* Evidence */}
+        <Section id="evidence" title="Evidence" color="text-[#06d6a0]">
+          {ev.length === 0 ? <Empty /> : ev.map((e) => {
+            const tone = (e.grade && GRADE_TONE[e.grade]) || "text-[#9aa6b8] border-[#9aa6b8]";
+            return (
+              <div key={e.evidence_id} className="rounded border border-[rgba(6,214,160,0.18)] bg-[#0d1220] p-3 mb-2">
+                <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2 mb-1">
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{e.evidence_id} · {e.source_page_id}</span>
+                  <span className={`px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded text-[10px] font-mono uppercase border ${tone}`}>Grade {e.grade}</span>
+                </div>
+                <blockquote className="text-[12px] text-[#cbd2dd] italic border-l-2 border-[#06d6a0] pl-2 mt-1">
+                  “{e.verbatim_excerpt}”
+                </blockquote>
+              </div>
+            );
+          })}
+        </Section>
+
+        {/* Contradictions */}
+        <Section id="contradictions" title="Contradictions" color="text-[#ff8a4d]">
+          {ctr.length === 0 ? <Empty /> : ctr.map((c) => {
+            const n = Array.isArray(c.chunks) ? c.chunks.length : 0;
+            return (
+              <div key={c.contradiction_id} className="rounded border border-[rgba(255,138,77,0.18)] bg-[#0d1220] p-3 mb-2">
+                <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2 mb-1">
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{c.contradiction_id}</span>
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#9aa6b8]">{n} positions · {c.resolution_status}</span>
+                </div>
+                <div className="text-[13px] text-[#e7ecf3] leading-snug">{c.topic}</div>
+              </div>
+            );
+          })}
+        </Section>
+
+        {/* Outliers */}
+        <Section id="outliers" title="Outliers" color="text-[#ffd23f]">
+          {gap.length === 0 ? <Empty /> : gap.map((g) => {
+            const s = (g.scope ?? {}) as Record<string, unknown>;
+            const title = (s.title as string) || g.description;
+            const isOutlier = s.kind === "outlier";
+            return (
+              <div key={g.gap_id} className="rounded border border-[rgba(255,210,63,0.25)] bg-[#0d1220] p-3 mb-2">
+                <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2 mb-1">
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{g.gap_id}{isOutlier && " · outlier"}</span>
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#9aa6b8]">{g.status}</span>
+                </div>
+                <div className="text-[13px] text-[#e7ecf3] leading-snug">{title}</div>
+                {s.why_surprising !== undefined && (
+                  <div className="text-[11px] text-[#cbd2dd] mt-1 leading-relaxed">{String(s.why_surprising)}</div>
+                )}
+                {g.suggested_next_move && (
+                  <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#06d6a0] mt-1">→ {g.suggested_next_move}</div>
+                )}
+              </div>
+            );
+          })}
+        </Section>
+
+        {/* Witnesses */}
+        <Section id="witnesses" title="Witness analyses" color="text-[#9b5de5]">
+          {wit.length === 0 ? <Empty /> : wit.map((w) => (
+            <div key={w.witness_id} className="rounded border border-[rgba(155,93,229,0.18)] bg-[#0d1220] p-3 mb-2">
+              <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2 mb-1">
+                <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{w.witness_id}</span>
+                <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#9b5de5]">{w.credibility ?? "—"}</span>
+              </div>
+              <div className="text-[13px] text-[#e7ecf3] font-medium">
+                {w.entity_id ? <Link href={`/e/people/${w.entity_id}`} className="hover:underline">{w.canonical_name ?? w.entity_id}</Link> : (w.canonical_name ?? "—")}
+              </div>
+              {w.verdict && <blockquote className="text-[12px] text-[#cbd2dd] italic mt-1 border-l-2 border-[#9b5de5] pl-2">{w.verdict}</blockquote>}
+            </div>
+          ))}
+        </Section>
+
+        {/* Recent jobs */}
+        <Section id="jobs" title="Recent investigation jobs" color="text-[#9aa6b8]">
+          {jobs.length === 0 ? <Empty /> : (
+            <div className="rounded border border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.08)] bg-[#0d1220] overflow-hidden">
+              <table className="w-full text-[11px] font-mono">
+                <thead className="text-[#5a6678] border-b border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.1)]">
+                  <tr>
+                    <th className="text-left px-3 py-2">job</th>
+                    <th className="text-left px-3 py-2">kind</th>
+                    <th className="text-left px-3 py-2">status</th>
+                    <th className="text-left px-3 py-2">created</th>
+                  </tr>
+                </thead>
+                <tbody>
+                  {jobs.map((j) => (
+                    <tr key={j.job_id} className="border-t border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.04)] hover:bg-[rgba(127,219,255,0.03)]">
+                      <td className="px-3 py-2">
+                        <Link href={`/jobs/${j.job_id}`} className="text-[#7fdbff] hover:underline">{j.job_id.slice(0, 8)}…</Link>
+                      </td>
+                      <td className="px-3 py-2 text-[#cbd2dd]">{j.kind}</td>
+                      <td className={`px-3 py-2 ${
+                        j.status === "complete" ? "text-[#06d6a0]" :
+                        j.status === "failed"   ? "text-[#ff6ec7]" :
+                        j.status === "running"  ? "text-[#ffd23f]" :
+                                                  "text-[#9aa6b8]"
+                      }`}>{j.status}</td>
+                      <td className="px-3 py-2 text-[#5a6678]">{new Date(j.created_at).toLocaleString("pt-BR")}</td>
+                    </tr>
+                  ))}
+                </tbody>
+              </table>
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </Section>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function Section({ id, title, color, children }: { id: string; title: string; color: string; children: React.ReactNode }) {
+  return (
+    <section id={id} className="mb-10 scroll-mt-20">
+      <h2 className={`font-mono text-xs uppercase tracking-[0.18em] ${color} mb-3`}>// {title}</h2>
+      <div>{children}</div>
+    </section>
+  );
+}
+
+function Empty() {
+  return <div className="text-[11px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">_(none yet)_</div>;
+}

web/app/page.tsx

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import { BatchProgressBanner } from "@/components/batch-progress-banner";
 import { getLocale } from "@/components/locale-toggle";
 import { summarize, pickPitch } from "@/lib/doc-summary";
 import { DocListFilters } from "@/components/doc-list-filters";
+import { BureauSnapshot } from "@/components/bureau-snapshot";
 
 // Read wiki/ filesystem at request time, not build time.
 export const dynamic = "force-dynamic";
@@ -63,6 +64,13 @@ export default async function Home() {
             >
               📊 stats
             </Link>
+            <Link
+              href="/bureau"
+              className="font-mono text-xs px-3 py-1.5 border border-[#e0c080] text-[#e0c080] hover:bg-[rgba(224,192,128,0.10)] rounded"
+              title="Investigation Bureau — detectives, hypotheses, evidence, contradictions, outliers, case reports"
+            >
+              🔎 bureau
+            </Link>
             <Link
               href="/admin/batch"
               className="font-mono text-xs px-3 py-1.5 border border-[rgba(0,255,156,0.30)] text-[#00ff9c] hover:bg-[rgba(0,255,156,0.10)] rounded"
@@ -74,14 +82,16 @@ export default async function Home() {
           </div>
         </div>
         <h1 className="font-mono text-3xl text-[#00ff9c] mb-2">
-          ▍ war.gov/ufo — Investigative Wiki
+          ▍ The Disclosure Bureau
         </h1>
         <p className="text-[#8896aa] text-sm">
           {docs.length} declassified documents · {docs.reduce((s, d) => s + d.pages, 0)} pages ·
-          AI-cataloged by the Investigation Bureau (Holmes · Poirot · Dupin · Locard)
+          investigated by 8 AI detectives (Holmes · Locard · Dupin · Schneier · Poirot · Taleb · Tetlock · Case-Writer)
         </p>
       </header>
 
+      <BureauSnapshot />
+
       <BatchProgressBanner />
 
       <DocListFilters docs={docs} />

web/components/bureau-snapshot.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,342 @@
+/**
+ * BureauSnapshot — homepage panel surfacing the Investigation Bureau's
+ * live artefact stack.
+ *
+ * Reads counts + the 3 most-recent items from each table directly via pg.
+ * Server component — renders straight into the homepage shell, no client
+ * hydration cost.
+ */
+import Link from "next/link";
+import { pgQuery } from "@/lib/retrieval/db";
+
+interface CountRow { c: string }
+interface RecentEvidence { evidence_id: string; grade: string; verbatim_excerpt: string; source_page_id: string; confidence_band: string | null }
+interface RecentHypothesis { hypothesis_id: string; position: string; posterior: number | string | null; confidence_band: string | null; reviewed_by: string | null }
+interface RecentContradiction { contradiction_id: string; topic: string; resolution_status: string }
+interface RecentGap { gap_id: string; description: string; scope: unknown }
+interface RecentWitness { witness_id: string; canonical_name: string | null; credibility: string | null; verdict: string | null }
+interface RecentJob { job_id: string; kind: string; status: string; created_at: string; payload: Record<string, unknown> | null }
+
+const DETECTIVES = [
+  { slug: "holmes",      name: "Holmes",      role: "Hypothesis tournament",  tone: "text-[#7fdbff] border-[#7fdbff]" },
+  { slug: "locard",      name: "Locard",      role: "Evidence chain",         tone: "text-[#06d6a0] border-[#06d6a0]" },
+  { slug: "dupin",       name: "Dupin",       role: "Contradiction scan",     tone: "text-[#ff8a4d] border-[#ff8a4d]" },
+  { slug: "schneier",    name: "Schneier",    role: "Red-team review",        tone: "text-[#ff3344] border-[#ff3344]" },
+  { slug: "poirot",      name: "Poirot",      role: "Witness analysis",       tone: "text-[#9b5de5] border-[#9b5de5]" },
+  { slug: "taleb",       name: "Taleb",       role: "Outlier hunter",         tone: "text-[#ffd23f] border-[#ffd23f]" },
+  { slug: "tetlock",     name: "Tetlock",     role: "Posterior calibration",  tone: "text-[#26d4cc] border-[#26d4cc]" },
+  { slug: "case-writer", name: "Case-Writer", role: "Five-act narrative",     tone: "text-[#e0c080] border-[#e0c080]" },
+] as const;
+
+const BAND_TONE: Record<string, string> = {
+  high: "text-[#06d6a0]",
+  medium: "text-[#3fde6a]",
+  low: "text-[#ffa500]",
+  speculation: "text-[#ff6ec7]",
+};
+
+const GRADE_TONE: Record<string, string> = {
+  A: "text-[#06d6a0] border-[#06d6a0]",
+  B: "text-[#3fde6a] border-[#3fde6a]",
+  C: "text-[#ffa500] border-[#ffa500]",
+};
+
+async function loadSnapshot() {
+  // Counts come from a single round-trip via UNION ALL.
+  const counts = await pgQuery<CountRow & { k: string }>(
+    `SELECT 'evidence' AS k, COUNT(*)::text AS c FROM public.evidence
+   UNION ALL SELECT 'hypotheses', COUNT(*)::text FROM public.hypotheses
+   UNION ALL SELECT 'contradictions', COUNT(*)::text FROM public.contradictions
+   UNION ALL SELECT 'witnesses', COUNT(*)::text FROM public.witnesses
+   UNION ALL SELECT 'gaps', COUNT(*)::text FROM public.gaps
+   UNION ALL SELECT 'open_hyp', COUNT(*)::text FROM public.hypotheses WHERE status='open'
+   UNION ALL SELECT 'jobs_running', COUNT(*)::text FROM public.investigation_jobs WHERE status IN ('queued','running')
+   UNION ALL SELECT 'jobs_complete_24h', COUNT(*)::text FROM public.investigation_jobs WHERE status='complete' AND finished_at > NOW() - INTERVAL '24 hours'`,
+  ).catch(() => [] as Array<CountRow & { k: string }>);
+
+  const byKey: Record<string, number> = {};
+  for (const r of counts) byKey[r.k] = Number(r.c);
+
+  const [hyp, ev, ctr, gap, wit, jobs] = await Promise.all([
+    pgQuery<RecentHypothesis>(
+      `SELECT hypothesis_id, position, posterior, confidence_band, reviewed_by
+         FROM public.hypotheses ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 4`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<RecentEvidence>(
+      `SELECT evidence_id, grade, verbatim_excerpt, source_page_id, confidence_band
+         FROM public.evidence ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 3`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<RecentContradiction>(
+      `SELECT contradiction_id, topic, resolution_status
+         FROM public.contradictions ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 3`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<RecentGap>(
+      `SELECT gap_id, description, scope FROM public.gaps ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 3`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<RecentWitness>(
+      `SELECT w.witness_id, e.canonical_name, w.credibility, w.verdict
+         FROM public.witnesses w
+    LEFT JOIN public.entities e ON e.entity_pk = w.person_entity_pk
+        ORDER BY w.created_at DESC LIMIT 3`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+    pgQuery<RecentJob>(
+      `SELECT job_id, kind, status, created_at, payload
+         FROM public.investigation_jobs ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 6`,
+    ).catch(() => []),
+  ]);
+
+  // Case reports live on disk. Read the reports dir.
+  const { readdir, stat } = await import("node:fs/promises");
+  const path = await import("node:path");
+  const reportsDir = path.join(process.env.CASE_ROOT || "/data/ufo/case", "reports");
+  let reports: Array<{ slug: string; mtimeMs: number }> = [];
+  try {
+    const files = await readdir(reportsDir);
+    const items = await Promise.all(
+      files.filter((f) => f.endsWith(".md")).map(async (f) => {
+        const st = await stat(path.join(reportsDir, f));
+        return { slug: f.replace(/\.md$/, ""), mtimeMs: st.mtimeMs };
+      }),
+    );
+    reports = items.sort((a, b) => b.mtimeMs - a.mtimeMs).slice(0, 4);
+  } catch { /* no reports yet — fine */ }
+
+  return { counts: byKey, hyp, ev, ctr, gap, wit, jobs, reports };
+}
+
+export async function BureauSnapshot() {
+  const snap = await loadSnapshot().catch(() => null);
+  if (!snap) {
+    return (
+      <section className="mb-10 border border-dashed border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.18)] rounded-lg p-4 text-[11px] text-[#9aa6b8] font-mono">
+        Investigation Bureau snapshot unavailable (db unreachable).
+      </section>
+    );
+  }
+  const { counts, hyp, ev, ctr, gap, wit, jobs, reports } = snap;
+  const totalArtefacts = (counts.evidence ?? 0) + (counts.hypotheses ?? 0) + (counts.contradictions ?? 0)
+    + (counts.witnesses ?? 0) + (counts.gaps ?? 0) + reports.length;
+  const running = counts.jobs_running ?? 0;
+
+  return (
+    <section className="mb-10">
+      {/* Section heading */}
+      <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-4 flex-wrap gap-2">
+        <div>
+          <h2 className="font-mono text-lg text-[#e7ecf3]">
+            <span className="text-[#7fdbff]">▍</span> The Investigation Bureau
+          </h2>
+          <p className="text-[11px] text-[#5a6678] font-mono mt-1">
+            8 AI detectives · {totalArtefacts} artefacts in the case folder
+            {running > 0 && <span className="text-[#ffd23f]"> · {running} job{running === 1 ? "" : "s"} in progress</span>}
+          </p>
+        </div>
+        <Link
+          href="/bureau"
+          className="font-mono text-xs px-3 py-1.5 border border-[#e0c080] text-[#e0c080] hover:bg-[rgba(224,192,128,0.10)] rounded"
+        >
+          → open the bureau
+        </Link>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Detective tiles */}
+      <div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-2 mb-5">
+        {DETECTIVES.map((d) => (
+          <div
+            key={d.slug}
+            className={`border ${d.tone} bg-[#0d1220] rounded p-2 text-[11px] font-mono leading-snug`}
+          >
+            <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between">
+              <span className="font-semibold">{d.name}</span>
+              <span className="text-[9px] text-[#5a6678] uppercase">{d.slug}</span>
+            </div>
+            <div className="text-[10px] text-[#9aa6b8] mt-0.5">{d.role}</div>
+          </div>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Counter row */}
+      <div className="grid grid-cols-3 md:grid-cols-6 gap-2 mb-5 text-center">
+        <Counter href="/bureau#evidence"       label="evidence"       value={counts.evidence ?? 0}       color="text-[#06d6a0]" />
+        <Counter href="/bureau#hypotheses"     label="hypotheses"     value={counts.hypotheses ?? 0}     color="text-[#7fdbff]" />
+        <Counter href="/bureau#contradictions" label="contradictions" value={counts.contradictions ?? 0} color="text-[#ff8a4d]" />
+        <Counter href="/bureau#witnesses"      label="witnesses"      value={counts.witnesses ?? 0}      color="text-[#9b5de5]" />
+        <Counter href="/bureau#outliers"       label="outliers"       value={counts.gaps ?? 0}           color="text-[#ffd23f]" />
+        <Counter href="/bureau#reports"        label="case reports"   value={reports.length}              color="text-[#e0c080]" />
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Recent artefacts grid: hypotheses + contradictions + outliers + reports */}
+      <div className="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-3 mb-3">
+        {hyp.length > 0 && (
+          <ArtefactColumn
+            title="Recent hypotheses"
+            color="text-[#7fdbff]"
+            border="border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.18)]"
+          >
+            {hyp.map((h) => {
+              const post = h.posterior !== null ? Number(h.posterior) : null;
+              const bandTone = (h.confidence_band && BAND_TONE[h.confidence_band]) || "text-[#9aa6b8]";
+              return (
+                <Link key={h.hypothesis_id} href={`/h/${h.hypothesis_id}`} className="block py-1.5 border-t border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.08)] first:border-t-0 hover:bg-[rgba(127,219,255,0.04)]">
+                  <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2">
+                    <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{h.hypothesis_id}</span>
+                    <span className={`text-[10px] font-mono ${bandTone}`}>
+                      {h.confidence_band ?? "—"}{post !== null && ` · ${post.toFixed(2)}`}
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="text-[12px] text-[#cbd2dd] leading-snug mt-0.5">{h.position}</div>
+                  {h.reviewed_by && (
+                    <div className="text-[9px] font-mono text-[#ff3344] mt-0.5">↳ reviewed by {h.reviewed_by}</div>
+                  )}
+                </Link>
+              );
+            })}
+          </ArtefactColumn>
+        )}
+
+        {ctr.length > 0 && (
+          <ArtefactColumn
+            title="Recent contradictions"
+            color="text-[#ff8a4d]"
+            border="border-[rgba(255,138,77,0.18)]"
+          >
+            {ctr.map((c) => (
+              <div key={c.contradiction_id} className="py-1.5 border-t border-[rgba(255,138,77,0.08)] first:border-t-0">
+                <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2">
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{c.contradiction_id}</span>
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#9aa6b8]">{c.resolution_status}</span>
+                </div>
+                <div className="text-[12px] text-[#cbd2dd] leading-snug mt-0.5">{c.topic}</div>
+              </div>
+            ))}
+          </ArtefactColumn>
+        )}
+
+        {ev.length > 0 && (
+          <ArtefactColumn
+            title="Recent evidence"
+            color="text-[#06d6a0]"
+            border="border-[rgba(6,214,160,0.18)]"
+          >
+            {ev.map((e) => {
+              const tone = (e.grade && GRADE_TONE[e.grade]) || "text-[#9aa6b8]";
+              return (
+                <div key={e.evidence_id} className="py-1.5 border-t border-[rgba(6,214,160,0.08)] first:border-t-0">
+                  <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2">
+                    <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{e.evidence_id}</span>
+                    <span className={`text-[10px] font-mono ${tone} px-1.5 border rounded`}>Grade {e.grade}</span>
+                  </div>
+                  <blockquote className="text-[12px] text-[#cbd2dd] italic mt-0.5 leading-snug border-l-2 border-[#06d6a0] pl-2">
+                    “{(e.verbatim_excerpt || "").slice(0, 140)}…”
+                  </blockquote>
+                </div>
+              );
+            })}
+          </ArtefactColumn>
+        )}
+
+        {gap.length > 0 && (
+          <ArtefactColumn
+            title="Recent outliers"
+            color="text-[#ffd23f]"
+            border="border-[rgba(255,210,63,0.25)]"
+          >
+            {gap.map((g) => {
+              const s = (g.scope ?? {}) as Record<string, unknown>;
+              const title = (s.title as string) || g.description;
+              return (
+                <div key={g.gap_id} className="py-1.5 border-t border-[rgba(255,210,63,0.08)] first:border-t-0">
+                  <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2">
+                    <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{g.gap_id}</span>
+                    {s.kind === "outlier" && (
+                      <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#ffd23f]">outlier</span>
+                    )}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="text-[12px] text-[#cbd2dd] leading-snug mt-0.5">{title}</div>
+                </div>
+              );
+            })}
+          </ArtefactColumn>
+        )}
+
+        {wit.length > 0 && (
+          <ArtefactColumn
+            title="Witness analyses"
+            color="text-[#9b5de5]"
+            border="border-[rgba(155,93,229,0.18)]"
+          >
+            {wit.map((w) => (
+              <div key={w.witness_id} className="py-1.5 border-t border-[rgba(155,93,229,0.08)] first:border-t-0">
+                <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between gap-2">
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">{w.witness_id}</span>
+                  <span className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#9b5de5]">{w.credibility ?? "—"}</span>
+                </div>
+                <div className="text-[12px] text-[#cbd2dd] leading-snug mt-0.5 font-semibold">{w.canonical_name ?? "—"}</div>
+                {w.verdict && <div className="text-[11px] text-[#9aa6b8] mt-0.5 italic">{w.verdict.slice(0, 200)}</div>}
+              </div>
+            ))}
+          </ArtefactColumn>
+        )}
+
+        {reports.length > 0 && (
+          <ArtefactColumn
+            title="Case reports"
+            color="text-[#e0c080]"
+            border="border-[rgba(224,192,128,0.25)]"
+          >
+            {reports.map((r) => (
+              <Link key={r.slug} href={`/c/${r.slug}`} className="block py-1.5 border-t border-[rgba(224,192,128,0.08)] first:border-t-0 hover:bg-[rgba(224,192,128,0.04)]">
+                <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678]">case-report</div>
+                <div className="text-[12px] text-[#e0c080] leading-snug mt-0.5 font-medium">/c/{r.slug}</div>
+                <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678] mt-0.5">Watson five-act narrative →</div>
+              </Link>
+            ))}
+          </ArtefactColumn>
+        )}
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Job activity strip */}
+      {jobs.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678] mt-2">
+          Recent jobs:{" "}
+          {jobs.slice(0, 4).map((j, i) => (
+            <span key={j.job_id}>
+              {i > 0 && <span className="text-[#3a4250]"> · </span>}
+              <Link
+                href={`/jobs/${j.job_id}`}
+                className={`hover:underline ${
+                  j.status === "complete" ? "text-[#06d6a0]" :
+                  j.status === "failed"   ? "text-[#ff6ec7]" :
+                  j.status === "running"  ? "text-[#ffd23f]" :
+                                            "text-[#9aa6b8]"
+                }`}
+              >
+                {j.kind}/{j.status}
+              </Link>
+            </span>
+          ))}
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </section>
+  );
+}
+
+function Counter({ label, value, color, href }: { label: string; value: number; color: string; href: string }) {
+  return (
+    <Link href={href} className="block rounded border border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.08)] bg-[#0d1220] py-2 hover:border-[rgba(127,219,255,0.20)]">
+      <div className={`text-2xl font-mono font-bold ${color}`}>{value}</div>
+      <div className="text-[10px] font-mono text-[#5a6678] uppercase tracking-wider mt-0.5">{label}</div>
+    </Link>
+  );
+}
+
+function ArtefactColumn({
+  title, color, border, children,
+}: { title: string; color: string; border: string; children: React.ReactNode }) {
+  return (
+    <div className={`rounded-lg border ${border} bg-[#0d1220] p-3`}>
+      <div className={`text-[10px] font-mono uppercase tracking-wider ${color} mb-1`}>{title}</div>
+      <div>{children}</div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}